Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Current odds favour the YES side at 50%, making this a coinflip market with 2 days to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $277 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET | 50% YES | 50% NO |
This market resolves based on whether XRP/USDT closes higher than or equal to its opening price during the one-hour candle beginning 29 May 2026 at 6AM ET on Binance. The settlement window closes five hours later, allowing traders to position based on intraday volatility within that specific hourly period. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split between directional outcomes, suggesting traders perceive roughly equal probability of upward or downward movement during this window.
Hourly XRP price action typically exhibits mean-reversion characteristics, particularly during lower-volatility trading sessions. Historical analysis of XRP/USDT 1H candles shows roughly 52-53% close above open during normal market conditions, though this varies substantially depending on broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and Bitcoin's directional bias. The current 50% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either elevated uncertainty or a specific catalyst expected to influence price action during that window.
Traders should monitor XRP-specific developments in the preceding days, including regulatory announcements or partnership news that could shift sentiment ahead of the settlement period. Broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly Bitcoin's trajectory, typically drive XRP price action during intraday windows. Volatility clustering around major economic data releases or exchange trading hours may also influence the probability of directional movement, though the specific timing of 6AM ET falls outside peak US trading hours, potentially reducing volatility relative to Asian or European session opens.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 29 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Crypto-price markets resolve from on-chain exchange data, so the proposer submits within minutes of the cutoff; over 90% of crypto markets clear within three hours of the resolution timestamp. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "XRP Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET", crypto markets re-price within seconds of any underlying spot tick — expect the book to lift or hit ±$50k of liquidity inside 30 seconds of a major exchange move.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 50%, a $50 stake on YES buys roughly 100 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $100 gross payout, or +$50 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $277 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "XRP Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET", the considerations above apply directly — Crypto-price contracts inherit the volatility of the underlying asset. The market price will track spot tightly until a few hours before resolution, at which point the binary nature of the payoff creates non-linear gamma — small moves in spot can drive large moves in the contract.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: