Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 8?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 85,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 83,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 81,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 8 May 2026 will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment across a 16-month window. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an extremely wide price range being priced as implausible or a lack of liquidity at the current ask. Order book depth will determine whether this probability shifts materially as the settlement date approaches; sparse liquidity in tail outcomes often produces counterintuitive probability readings that don't reflect genuine market conviction.
Historical Bitcoin price movements show volatility clustering around regulatory announcements, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and institutional adoption milestones. The 2024–2025 period saw Bitcoin respond sharply to US election outcomes and central bank signalling. A 16-month forecast window encompasses multiple potential catalysts: potential changes to US crypto regulation under new administrations, developments in Bitcoin's legal status across major economies, macroeconomic shocks affecting risk appetite, and technological upgrades to the Bitcoin network itself.
Traders should monitor scheduled events including Federal Reserve meetings, major cryptocurrency legislation timelines, and statements from regulatory bodies like the SEC and CFTC. Recent reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters has highlighted ongoing debates around Bitcoin's classification as a commodity versus security, which could influence institutional participation and price discovery. The settlement window's length means early-stage probability estimates remain highly sensitive to information arrival; current order book positioning likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than confident pricing of any specific outcome.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$466K in lifetime turnover and $550K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $466K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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