Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on June 4?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 72,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 71,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 70,000 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 69,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 68,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 67,000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ 66,000 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| ↑ 65,000 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 4 June 2026 will be determined by prevailing market conditions across spot and derivatives exchanges. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price outcome or insufficient liquidity at current ask prices, suggesting traders are either heavily positioned or awaiting tighter spreads before committing capital.
Historical volatility patterns show Bitcoin has experienced daily swings exceeding 10% during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty or regulatory announcements. The 18-month settlement window allows for substantial price discovery, though comparable events—such as the 2024 spot ETF approvals and subsequent institutional adoption—demonstrated that major catalysts can compress volatility expectations significantly. Current order book depth will indicate whether the 0% probability reflects genuine consensus or simply a pricing gap awaiting market makers.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications, geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite, and any regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions in the months preceding June 2026. Bitcoin's correlation with broader equity markets has strengthened since 2023, making macroeconomic data releases and central bank policy shifts material catalysts. Additionally, on-chain metrics including exchange flows and whale accumulation patterns typically precede significant price movements. The settlement window's length means early positioning may shift substantially as new information emerges, particularly around institutional adoption trends and inflation expectations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on June 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$152K in lifetime turnover and $443K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $152K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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