Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Hyperliquid's price will move upward or remain flat during a five-minute window on 1 May 2026 at 7:35–7:40 PM ET, as measured by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting directional movement over such a compressed timeframe. Five-minute price movements in crypto are largely driven by order flow microstructure, execution timing, and algorithmic trading rather than fundamental shifts, making them notoriously difficult to forecast with any edge.
Historical precedent from similar ultra-short-window crypto markets shows that implied probabilities near 0% or 100% typically reflect the mathematical improbability of sustained directional conviction rather than genuine market certainty. Comparable five-minute resolution markets on major cryptocurrencies have historically resolved to "Down" slightly more often than random chance would suggest, though the margin is negligible. The current probability distribution suggests traders view this as essentially a coin flip, with any YES position requiring exceptional conviction about order book imbalances or scheduled announcements during that specific window.
No major Hyperliquid-specific announcements or scheduled events are publicly listed for 1 May 2026 at that time. Traders monitoring this market should watch for any unexpected protocol updates, exchange listings, or macroeconomic data releases that could create volatility clusters. Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed aggregates prices from multiple venues, so liquidity conditions across spot markets and derivatives will determine settlement precision. The five-minute window's brevity means even modest trading volume could shift the price meaningfully.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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