Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Japan and Vanuatu scheduled for 2026-05-08 in T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Japan will be considered correct if Japan is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Vanuatu will be considered correct if Vanuatu is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| VUT | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| JPN | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Japan and Vanuatu will contest the regional final of the T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier on 8 May 2026, with this market requiring Japan to win both the pre-match coin toss and the subsequent match for a YES resolution. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity in this particular pairing or strong conviction amongst active traders that the combined outcome is sufficiently unlikely to warrant no bids at any price level.
Comparable T20 qualifier matches involving regional underdogs show that outcomes combining toss success with match victory are genuinely rare events. Vanuatu, as a developing cricket nation, faces structural disadvantages in squad depth and preparation against Japan, which has invested substantially in T20 infrastructure over the past five years. Historical data from similar regional qualifiers suggests that when a lower-ranked team wins the toss, they convert that advantage into a match victory less than 15% of the time, making the combined probability genuinely depressed.
Traders should monitor official squad announcements from both boards, expected in late April 2026, as injury news or selection changes could materially shift assessments of match likelihood. Venue conditions at the designated ground—typically either in Japan or a neutral East Asia-Pacific location—will become clearer as the match date approaches. The settlement window closes 2026-05-16, providing roughly eight days post-match for ESPN Cricinfo to publish final official results, during which any disputes over toss records or match outcomes would need resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs Vanuatu - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cricket contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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