Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves PARIVISION's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of PARIVISION" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/12467/parivision#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: Jame, BELCHONOKK, xiELO, nota, and zweih. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
PARIVISION's five-player CS2 roster—currently comprising Jame, BELCHONOKK, xiELO, nota, and zweih—faces a binary outcome: whether at least one player joins or departs before 30 June 2026. The market is pricing this at 51% implied probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty about roster stability over the next six months. This settlement window captures a meaningful portion of the competitive calendar, including regional qualifiers and potential international tournaments where roster decisions typically crystallise.
Roster churn in professional Counter-Strike varies significantly by team tier and regional context. Tier-one organisations often maintain stability between major events, whilst mid-tier teams experience more frequent changes driven by performance pressure or player departures to higher-ranked squads. PARIVISION's historical roster turnover rate and current competitive standing relative to peers provide the baseline for assessing whether 51% adequately reflects the probability of change. Teams with inconsistent results or players seeking upgrades typically see movement within six-month windows; conversely, cohesive units with clear roles tend toward stability.
Traders should monitor PARIVISION's performance in upcoming qualifiers and regional competitions, where poor results often trigger roster discussions. Announcements from competing organisations seeking to recruit from PARIVISION's roster—particularly Jame, the most established player—would signal elevated risk of departure. Contract expiration dates, if publicly disclosed, represent hard catalysts. Esports news outlets including HLTV and 1337 typically report roster moves within hours of confirmation, providing clear settlement signals.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.hltv.org/team/12467/parivision#tab-rosterBox. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11 in lifetime turnover and $149 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for counter strike 2 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 51%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.hltv.org/team/12467/parivision#tab-rosterBox. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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