Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping around May 14-15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any portion of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present at any meeting or event which is part of this summit and for which officials from both the government of the United States and the government of China are present. The summit will be considered to have ended once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings or events which start after this time will be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Melania Trump | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| Jared Kushner | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Steve Witkoff | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Marco Rubio | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| Any of Trump’s sons | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| Scott Bessent | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Elon Musk | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping on 14–15 May 2026. This market resolves positively if a specified individual attends any portion of the summit, defined as being physically present at meetings or events involving officials from both the US and Chinese governments. The settlement window closes on 17 May 2026, three days after the scheduled conclusion of Trump's departure from Chinese territory.
The 89% implied probability reflects confidence in the summit occurring and the individual's attendance, though historical precedent suggests some caution is warranted. Trump's previous China visit in November 2017 included a substantial delegation of cabinet members and advisers, though not all senior officials attended every event. The 2015 Xi state visit to the US saw selective attendance from the Obama administration's cabinet. Cancellations or postponements of high-level summits remain possible given geopolitical volatility; the scheduled Trump-Kim summit in 2018 was cancelled then rescheduled within weeks.
Key catalysts include formal confirmation of the summit date and attendee list, typically released 4–8 weeks beforehand through State Department or Chinese Foreign Ministry channels. Trade tensions, Taiwan-related incidents, or broader US-China relations could prompt schedule changes. Current order book pricing suggests traders view cancellation risk as modest but material. Any announcement regarding the individual's health, diplomatic reassignment, or explicit exclusion from the delegation would move markets substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will attend Trump's Xi summit?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $58K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for china contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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