Trade: 2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament scheduled for June 29 - July 6, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament per the rules of the Grand Chess Tour, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $302
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $6
Market outcomes
| Vincent Keymer | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Alireza Firouzja | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Anish Giri | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Jorden Van Foreest | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Bogdan-Daniel Deac | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The Grand Chess Tour's Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia event runs 29 June to 6 July 2026, bringing together the world's elite players for a condensed format tournament. The 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about field composition and player form across both rapid (25 minutes plus increment) and blitz (5 minutes plus increment) disciplines, where outcomes diverge more sharply than in classical chess.
Historical Grand Chess Tour events show that super rapid and blitz tournaments produce winners less predictable than classical formats. Ding Liren, Fabiano Caruana, and Alireza Firouzja have each claimed rapid/blitz titles in recent GCT editions, yet none dominates these faster formats consistently. The 50% probability suggests traders are pricing in genuine competitive depth rather than favouring any single player, reflecting how tactical sharpness and time-management variance create wider outcome distributions in accelerated play.
Key catalysts include official GCT field announcements (typically 2–3 months pre-event), player withdrawal or injury news, and any schedule adjustments affecting preparation time. The settlement window closes 7 July 2026, with a hard deadline of 20 July for tournament completion. Traders should monitor classical tournament results through spring 2026 as form indicators, though rapid and blitz performance often decorrelates from longer-format strength. Recent GCT communications and FIDE rating updates will signal which players are peaking into summer competition.
Wikipedia Context
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Grand Chess Tour 2023The Grand Chess Tour 2023 was a series of chess tournaments, which was the eighth edition of the Grand Chess Tour. It consisted of five tournaments with a total prize pool of US$1.4 million, including two tournaments with classical time control and three tournaments with faster time controls.
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Grand Chess Tour 2024The Grand Chess Tour 2024 was a series of chess tournaments, which was the ninth edition of the Grand Chess Tour. It consisted of five tournaments with a total prize pool of US$1.4 million, including two tournaments with classical time control and three tournaments with faster time controls.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $302 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for chess contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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