Trade: UEFA Champions League: Most Red Cards
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who records the most red cards through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League competition. For the purpose of this market, both direct red cards, or red cards that result from the accumulation of two yellow cards in the same match will be considered in the final count. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Champions League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $319
- Total Volume
- $38K
- 24h Volume
- $40
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Álvaro Fernández Carreras | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Declan Rice | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Kim Min-Jae | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Julian Alvarez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Placeholder J | — | |
| Placeholder O | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Santiago Hezze | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League will run through May 2026, with the tournament's disciplinary record determining which player accumulates the most red cards across all matches. Both direct dismissals and accumulated two-yellow-card sendings-off count equally towards the final tally. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of meaningful trading activity or committed liquidity on either side of this market, a common pattern for niche player-specific discipline markets where data scarcity and low volume create wide bid-ask spreads.
Historical Champions League seasons show red card leaders typically accumulate between three and five dismissals across the entire campaign. The 2023-24 season saw relatively disciplined play compared to earlier years, though defenders and midfielders—particularly those in physical, high-pressing sides—dominate the discipline rankings. Tactical intensity, referee consistency across different match officials, and squad rotation patterns all influence individual accumulation rates. Markets pricing at 0% often indicate traders lack conviction on specific player outcomes rather than reflecting genuine impossibility.
Catalysts for this market centre on squad composition announcements and early-season disciplinary trends. Managers' tactical approaches in autumn group stages will signal which players face elevated dismissal risk, whilst fixture congestion and referee assignments in knockout rounds affect card distribution. The market will gain meaningful price discovery only once the tournament begins and patterns emerge; currently, the absence of trading reflects rational hesitation given the long settlement window and inherent unpredictability of individual player discipline outcomes.
Wikipedia Context
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UEFA Club Football Awards
In recognition of the best players in the UEFA Champions League each year, UEFA gives out several awards to the most outstanding performers of the European club football season. The awards are presented in August each year at a special gala in Monaco; previously, the ceremony would coincide with the UEFA Super Cup, but since the Super Cup was moved to early
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European Cup and UEFA Champions League records and statisticsThis page details statistics of all seasons of the European Cup and Champions League. These statistics do not include the qualifying rounds of the UEFA Champions League, unless otherwise noted.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UEFA Champions League: Most Red Cards" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$38K in lifetime turnover and $319 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for champions league contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $40 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UEFA Champions League: Most Red Cards"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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