Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed contestant is voted off of Survivor: Season 50 during the episode scheduled to release May 6, 2026 8:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" If the relevant episode of Survivor is not aired by the date of this show's next scheduled release, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Evacuations, medical disqualifications, or voluntary or involuntary forfeitures not as a result of voting will not qualify towards the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the relevant episode of Survivor.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Aubry Bracco | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jonathan Young | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cirie Fields | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ozzy Lusth | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Tiffany Nicole Ervin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Joe Hunter | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rizo Velovic | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Emily Flippen | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Survivor: Season 50 will air its next episode on 6 May 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, during which one contestant will be voted off through the standard tribal council elimination process. This market tracks whether a specific named contestant receives the plurality of votes that evening. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity on this particular contestant or strong conviction amongst traders that this individual will not face elimination during that specific episode.
Survivor's elimination mechanics have remained consistent across decades of programming, making historical voting patterns a useful reference point. Contestants typically face elimination based on challenge performance, social positioning, and alliance dynamics established over preceding weeks. The show's editing and pre-episode promotional material occasionally signal vulnerability for particular players, though surprises remain common. Current season dynamics—including remaining contestant count, established alliances, and individual threat levels—determine realistic elimination candidates for any given week.
Traders should monitor official CBS scheduling to confirm the episode airs as planned on 6 May 2026, as production delays or format changes could affect resolution. Pre-episode coverage from entertainment outlets and social media speculation about contestant vulnerability may emerge in the days before broadcast. The Polymarket order book's current depth at 0% suggests limited liquidity or consensus that this contestant represents a negligible elimination risk for this particular episode, though order book conditions can shift substantially as the broadcast date approaches and new information emerges.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be voted off Survivor: Season 50 this week? (May 6)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for celebrities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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