Trade: Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $57K
- Total Volume
- $30K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $7K
Market outcomes
| Person L | — | |
| Person T | — | |
| Person Z | — | |
| Brad Bradford | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Anthony Furey | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kevin Clarke | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person A | — | |
Market context
Toronto will hold municipal elections on 26 October 2026, with voters selecting the city's next mayor. The current incumbent, John Tory, announced in March 2023 that he would not seek re-election, creating an open race. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, with a backstop resolution date of 30 June 2027 if results remain unclear. Polymarket's order book has not yet formed a live price, meaning the implied probability reflects only initial liquidity and positioning.
Toronto's mayoral elections typically feature competitive multi-candidate fields. The 2018 race saw John Tory win with approximately 40% of the vote against nine other candidates. Comparable Canadian municipal races in major cities—including Vancouver and Montreal—have shown that front-runner status can shift substantially during campaign periods, particularly once candidates formally declare and media coverage intensifies. Early polling or endorsement patterns may not persist through to voting day.
Traders should monitor formal candidate declarations, which typically accelerate in the months preceding the election. Campaign finance disclosures and local media coverage of candidate platforms will provide substantive signals about viability. Any changes to the election date or unexpected mayoral departures before October 2026 could alter the race dynamics. Recent Toronto municipal governance discussions have centred on housing affordability, transit expansion, and budget constraints—issues likely to define campaign messaging.
Wikipedia Context
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2014 Toronto mayoral electionA mayoral election was held on October 27, 2014. Incumbent Mayor Rob Ford initially ran for re-election, but dropped out after being diagnosed with a tumour - instead running for city council in Ward 2. Registration of candidates began on January 2, 2014, and ended September 12, 2014, at 2 pm.
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2026 Toronto mayoral election
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled for Monday, October 26, 2026 to elect the mayor of the City of Toronto. The election takes place alongside the 2026 Toronto municipal election, which will elect city councillors and school board trustees.
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2010 Toronto mayoral electionA mayoral election was held on October 25, 2010, to elect a mayor of the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The mayor's seat was open for the first time since the 2003 Toronto election due to the announcement by incumbent mayor David Miller that he would not seek a third term in office. The nomination period for the 2010 municipal election opened on January 4
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2018 Toronto mayoral electionA mayoral election was held on Monday, October 22, 2018, to elect the Mayor of the city of Toronto. Incumbent Mayor John Tory was re-elected for a second term, defeating former Chief City Planner Jennifer Keesmaat with 63.49% of the vote. Tory won all of Toronto’s 25 wards.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$30K in lifetime turnover and $57K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for canada contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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