Trade: Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $62K
- Total Volume
- $21K
- 24h Volume
- $18
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Goldman Sachs | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Bank of America | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Santander | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Lloyds | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| BMO | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| KeyBank | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| BNP Paribas | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Deutsche Bank | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether any major bank will face regulatory insolvency or licence revocation by the end of 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 5% implied probability, suggesting traders assess systemic banking failure as unlikely over the next two years despite recent volatility in the sector.
Historical precedent shapes how this probability should be interpreted. The 2008 financial crisis saw multiple major bank failures within months once confidence collapsed, whilst the 2023 regional banking stress—including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank—demonstrated that modern failures can occur rapidly but remain geographically or sector-specific. The UK and eurozone have experienced no major systemic bank failures since 2008 despite periodic stress tests and regulatory tightening. Regulatory capital requirements have roughly doubled since the crisis, and stress-testing protocols now account for severe recession scenarios. The 5% probability reflects this structural resilience, though it acknowledges tail risks remain non-zero.
Traders should monitor regulatory announcements from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank regarding capital adequacy assessments, scheduled stress tests, and any deterioration in bank asset quality metrics. Recent earnings seasons have shown mixed results, with net interest margin compression and credit quality concerns emerging in some portfolios. Geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices and commercial real estate valuations warrant attention, as these sectors have historically triggered banking stress. Any unexpected liquidity events or significant deposit outflows at systemically important institutions would materially shift the probability.
Wikipedia Context
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Banksia integrifoliaBanksia integrifolia, commonly known as the coast banksia, is a species of tree that grows along the east coast of Australia. One of the most widely distributed Banksia species, it occurs between Victoria and Central Queensland in a broad range of habitats, from coastal dunes to mountains. It is highly variable in form, but is most often encountered as a tre
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Whitebank Stadium
Whitebank Stadium, currently also known as the Vestacare Stadium for sponsorship purposes, is a rugby league and association football stadium which forms part of Limeside in Oldham, England. It is the home stadium of Avro F.C.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which banks will fail by end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$21K in lifetime turnover and $62K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which banks will fail by end of 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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