Bud

Trade: Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 23 April 2026 · Settles 5 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Anheuser-Busch is estimated to release earnings on May 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Anheuser-Busch’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.91 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anheuser-Busch reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.91 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Anheuser-Busch releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $5K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $4K

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Market outcomes

Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings?

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

Anheuser-Busch is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 5 May, with consensus non-GAAP EPS expectations at $0.91. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability of a beat, suggesting traders expect reported earnings to exceed this threshold. This extreme probability reading warrants scrutiny, as consensus estimates typically embed a modest cushion and earnings beats occur in roughly 50–60% of cases across large-cap consumer staples historically.

AB InBev's recent performance has been mixed, with the company navigating pricing power against volume pressures in key markets. The brewer reported fourth-quarter 2025 results in February showing resilience in premium segments, though emerging markets faced headwinds from currency fluctuations and competitive intensity. Traders should monitor any pre-earnings guidance updates or management commentary on volume trends, particularly in the United States and Latin America, which together represent substantial earnings drivers.

The 100% probability on Polymarket's order book likely reflects thin liquidity at the extremes rather than genuine certainty. Traders entering positions should consider that consensus estimates for large-cap brewers often prove conservative on revenue but can be vulnerable to margin compression if input costs or promotional activity exceed expectations. Watch for any analyst estimate revisions in the week before 5 May, as these frequently signal shifting sentiment ahead of earnings releases.

Wikipedia Context

Anheuser-Busch brands
Anheuser-Busch is the largest brewing company in the United States, with a market share of 34% percent in 2023. A wholly owned subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV, Anheuser-Busch operates 12 breweries in the United States and nearly 20 in other countries, which increased after Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV acquired SABMiller in 2016. Brands include Budweis
Anheuser-Busch Brewery
Anheuser-Busch Brewery is a brewery complex in St. Louis, Missouri. It was opened in 1852 by German immigrant Adolphus Busch. It a National Historic Landmark District. The Lyon Schoolhouse Museum is on the grounds at the Anheuser-Busch Brewery. It is considered to be one of the oldest school buildings in St Louis. It served as the head offices of the brewery
Anheuser-Busch
Anheuser-Busch Companies, LLC is an American brewing company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri. Since 2008, following the hostile takeover by AB Inbev of Belgium, it has been wholly owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV, now the world's largest brewing company, which owns multiple global brands, notably Budweiser, Michelob, Stella Artois, and Beck's.
AB InBev
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV, known as AB InBev, is an American-Belgian multinational drink and brewing company based in Leuven, Belgium. It is the largest brewer in the world, and in 2023, was ranked 72nd in the Forbes Global 2000.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bud contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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