Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? | 14% YES | 87% NO |
George R. R. Martin has not released the sixth book in his A Song of Ice and Fire series since 2011, when "A Dance with Dragons" was published. An announcement of "The Winds of Winter" by the end of 2026 would represent a significant milestone after fifteen years of silence on the manuscript's completion status. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 14% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism amongst traders regarding near-term disclosure.
Martin's track record provides context for interpreting this probability. The gap between the fourth and fifth books spanned six years, whilst the fifth-to-sixth interval has now exceeded a decade. Martin has made occasional public statements about progress on the manuscript, most recently in 2023 when he indicated work was ongoing, but has consistently avoided firm publication timelines. His age (now 76) and competing commitments, including HBO television projects and other writing obligations, have historically extended development cycles. No comparable fantasy author of his stature has maintained such an extended publication gap without explicit announcement.
Catalysts traders should monitor include Martin's official blog updates, statements at fan conventions such as WorldCon or San Diego Comic-Con, and any formal publisher communications from Penguin Random House. The 2025 television landscape may also influence his availability, though no major Game of Thrones spin-off releases are currently scheduled for that year. The resolution window extends through 31 December 2026, meaning any announcement in the final months would qualify, though historical patterns suggest traders are pricing in continued delay rather than imminent disclosure.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for books contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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