Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 78,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the BTC/USDT closing price from Binance's 1-hour candle ending 8 May 2026 at 6PM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely tight price band relative to current spot levels, or a strike price substantially below Bitcoin's anticipated trading range on that date. With settlement occurring roughly 18 months forward, the market is pricing near-certainty that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold during that particular hourly close, suggesting the strike represents a conservative floor rather than a challenging target.
Historical precedent shows Bitcoin rarely fails to clear price levels set well below prevailing spot values over multi-month horizons, particularly when settlement windows span such extended periods. The current crowd probability on Polymarket's order book reflects accumulated bets from traders who view the specified price as highly achievable given typical Bitcoin volatility and directional bias. Comparable long-dated Bitcoin price markets have shown similar clustering at extreme probabilities when strikes are positioned conservatively relative to medium-term price expectations.
Traders monitoring this position should track macroeconomic developments affecting risk appetite, regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions, and Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets through spring 2026. Spot price movements in the months preceding May will establish whether the current probability remains justified or whether volatility creates meaningful trading opportunities. The Binance BTC/USDT pair's liquidity and 1-hour candle mechanics remain the sole determinants of settlement, independent of other exchanges or spot indices.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 8, 6PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$504 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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