Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 86,000 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 80,000 | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| 82,000 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 70,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 72,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 74,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 76,000 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| 78,000 | 87% YES | 14% NO |
This market concerns Bitcoin's noon ET price on Binance's BTC/USDT pair on 16 May 2026, settling on the 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The current 7% implied probability reflects substantial scepticism about Bitcoin reaching the specified threshold within that narrow window. Polymarket's order book is pricing this outcome as a low-probability event, with the spread between buyers and sellers reflecting limited conviction either direction at present depths.
Historical precedent suggests that single-minute price targets on major exchanges are inherently difficult to predict with precision. Bitcoin's intraday volatility on Binance typically ranges between 1–3% during standard trading hours, meaning the threshold would need to represent an unusually sharp move or align with an existing price level. The 7% probability aligns with base-rate expectations for tail-end price movements within a constrained timeframe, rather than reflecting specific fundamental weakness or strength in Bitcoin's medium-term trajectory.
Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic calendar events scheduled near the settlement date—particularly US economic data releases or Federal Reserve communications, which historically drive intraday volatility in Bitcoin. Geopolitical developments and regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions can also trigger sharp moves. The specificity of the noon ET timestamp means that pre-market sentiment and overnight Asian trading activity will influence opening conditions, whilst any news breaking in the morning hours could shift positioning ahead of the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$40K in lifetime turnover and $207K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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