Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 79,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 81,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 82,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the closing price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance's 1-hour candle ending 10 May 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that Bitcoin will close above the specified threshold during that particular hourly window. Such extreme probabilities typically emerge when the strike price sits substantially below prevailing spot rates or when the resolution mechanics carry minimal ambiguity.
Historical precedent suggests that hourly Bitcoin price predictions face genuine execution risk despite seemingly wide margins. Binance's BTC/USDT pair experiences regular volatility within single-hour candles, with flash crashes and rapid recoveries occurring frequently across major exchanges. Past instances of "certain" outcomes on hourly Bitcoin contracts have occasionally resolved against consensus when unexpected liquidation cascades or coordinated trading activity triggered sharp reversals. The specificity of Binance's closing methodology—using only that exchange's official 1-hour candle close—removes arbitrage hedging opportunities available through alternative venues.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendar events scheduled near the settlement window, particularly any Federal Reserve communications or significant economic data releases that could trigger broad risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin's correlation with equities and broader risk assets remains material, especially during volatile trading sessions. Technical levels and order book depth at Binance warrant observation as the window approaches, since thin liquidity during off-peak hours can amplify price movements. The settlement window closes 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC, providing a four-hour buffer after the candle closes for final price confirmation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 10, 10AM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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