Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is named to the 2025-26 All-Defensive First Team. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no official All-Defensive First Team is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Scottie Barnes | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Jaylen Brown | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Stephon Castle | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| OG Anunoby | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Ausar Thompson | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Derrick White | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Dyson Daniels | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The NBA selects ten players annually for the All-Defensive First Team, recognising elite perimeter and interior defenders across the league. Selection occurs through a combination of media voting and fan input, with results typically announced in June following the regular season and playoffs. The 2025-26 season will conclude in April 2026, with All-Defensive honours announced before the settlement window closes on 30 June 2026.
Historical All-Defensive First Team selections show consistency amongst elite defenders, with players like Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, and Bam Adebayo appearing regularly when healthy. However, selection remains competitive; a player must maintain top-five defensive rating or advanced metrics within their position whilst accumulating sufficient visibility across the voting period. Injuries, trades, and mid-season form shifts have historically altered expected selections. The current 56% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests moderate confidence in selection, reflecting uncertainty around the player's defensive consistency, team context, or potential competition from peers.
Traders should monitor the player's defensive rating, steal and block statistics throughout the 2025-26 season, alongside media coverage of defensive performance. Playoff performance carries particular weight in voting narratives. Changes in team defensive scheme, coaching staff, or roster composition could meaningfully affect visibility and voting outcomes. The NBA's official announcement in June 2026 will serve as the definitive resolution source, though credible reporting consensus may apply if official channels delay publication.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NBA: 2025-26 All-Defensive First Team" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$46 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for basketball contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $46 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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