Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve in favor of the rider who is named the winner of Bareback Riding at the 2026 The American West Regionals, scheduled to take place May 1-May 2, 2026, per the rules of The American Rodeo. In the event of a tie, the market will resolve based on the official result as determined by The American Rodeo. If multiple winners are declared, this market will resolve in favor of the rider whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If a rider is disqualified or otherwise ineligible to participate in the listed event per the rules of The American Rodeo, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Clayton Biglow | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider D | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider H | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider N | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider O | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider Q | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rider V | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The American Rodeo's West Regional bareback riding competition will take place on 1–2 May 2026, with the winner determined according to The American Rodeo's official judging criteria and rulebook. The market currently reflects 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating no active backing for any specific rider at present. Settlement occurs on 3 May 2026, with alphabetical tiebreaker rules applied should multiple riders be declared co-winners by the sanctioning body.
Bareback riding markets historically show sparse trading activity until competitor rosters are finalised and entry lists become public. The American Rodeo's regional events typically draw established circuit riders with documented performance records; historical precedent suggests probability mass concentrates around riders with recent top-tier finishes at comparable Professional Rodeo Cowboys Association events or The American circuit standings. Current zero probability reflects the absence of confirmed entrants or market-maker positions rather than fundamental uncertainty about the event itself.
Traders should monitor The American Rodeo's official announcements regarding the West Regional entry deadline and competitor confirmations, typically released 4–6 weeks before the event. Relevant catalysts include publication of the full competitor roster, any rider withdrawals or injuries affecting the field, and recent bareback riding results from other 2026 circuit events that might signal form. Weather conditions at the venue during the event dates could influence performance outcomes, though this remains unpredictable until nearer the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.youtube.com/live/qfgT46FmSiM. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "The American Rodeo: West Regional Bareback Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for american rodeo contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.youtube.com/live/qfgT46FmSiM. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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