Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether XRP/USD on Chainlink's data stream moves upward or downward during a five-minute window on 7 May between 8:05 and 8:10 AM Eastern Time. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are currently willing to back an upward movement at any price. Such extreme probabilities on intraday five-minute windows typically indicate either sparse liquidity or a consensus view that downward pressure dominates the settlement period.
Five-minute price windows for XRP historically exhibit high volatility relative to their duration, with outcomes often determined by order flow rather than fundamental shifts. Comparable micro-timeframe markets on Polymarket show that extreme probabilities (near 0% or 100%) frequently reflect illiquidity rather than certainty; a single market-maker's position can anchor prices at the extremes when trading volume is thin. XRP's typical daily volatility of 2–4% means that within five minutes, moves of either direction remain plausible unless a specific catalyst is imminent.
Traders should monitor whether any regulatory announcements, exchange listings, or macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for early morning on 7 May, as these could drive directional momentum. Recent XRP price action has been influenced by broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and developments in the Ripple lawsuit aftermath, though these typically move on longer timeframes than five minutes. The settlement window's specificity to Chainlink's data feed rather than spot exchanges means traders should verify whether any data feed anomalies or flash events could affect resolution independently of actual market prices.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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