Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.90 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance XRP/USDT spot price at the 12:00 ET noon candle on 7 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to any price outcome, reflecting minimal trading activity and wide uncertainty about where XRP will trade in roughly 18 months. The settlement mechanism uses Binance's 1-minute candle close data, a precise but occasionally volatile reference point during market hours when liquidity varies.
XRP has historically exhibited significant price volatility tied to regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions. The 2023–2024 period saw XRP respond sharply to US Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions and subsequent legal clarifications around its classification. Comparable markets for cryptocurrency prices 12–18 months forward typically show wide bid-ask spreads and low liquidity, as traders struggle to forecast both near-term catalysts and longer-term adoption trends. The zero probability reading here likely reflects the market's current indifference rather than genuine conviction that XRP will not trade at any specified level by May 2026.
Key catalysts to monitor include regulatory announcements from the SEC or international financial authorities regarding XRP's status, developments in Ripple's institutional partnerships, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment driven by Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements. Macroeconomic policy shifts affecting risk appetite will also influence XRP's trajectory. Traders should note that Binance's noon ET candle can experience lower liquidity than 24-hour volume averages, potentially creating slippage between spot prices and the settlement reference.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$56K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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