Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1.00 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 1.60-1.70 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on 12 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The current 1% implied probability reflects extremely low conviction that XRP will trade within the specified bracket at that precise moment. On Polymarket's order book, this pricing suggests traders view the outcome as highly unlikely relative to broader price expectations, though the exact bracket threshold remains the key determinant of resolution.
XRP has historically exhibited substantial intraday volatility, with noon closures frequently diverging from daily opens or previous closes by several percentage points. Comparable single-point-in-time price predictions for major cryptocurrencies typically command low probabilities when settlement depends on exact timing rather than broader price ranges. The 1% probability here aligns with markets where execution risk and market microstructure create meaningful uncertainty around specific hourly closes, even for liquid trading pairs.
Traders monitoring this position should track regulatory developments affecting Ripple, broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, and any scheduled announcements near the settlement date. XRP's price action remains sensitive to SEC litigation outcomes and institutional adoption news. The May 2026 timeframe extends beyond current major catalysts, meaning intermediate developments—including potential regulatory clarity or macroeconomic shifts—will substantially influence whether the noon close aligns with current market expectations. Binance's order book depth and typical trading volumes at noon ET will also determine execution feasibility should the price approach the bracket boundary.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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