Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.90 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on 11 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity rather than certainty that XRP will trade outside the resolution brackets. With nearly two years until settlement, liquidity in this specific contract remains sparse, typical for distant-dated cryptocurrency price predictions where traders concentrate capital on nearer-term events.
Historical precedent suggests XRP's price volatility and regulatory environment shape medium-term forecasts more than technical factors alone. The asset has experienced multi-year cycles driven by Securities and Exchange Commission litigation outcomes, institutional adoption announcements, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. The 2023 SEC settlement provided temporary clarity on XRP's regulatory status, though ongoing developments in digital asset classification continue to influence trader positioning across similar timeframes.
Catalysts through May 2026 include potential regulatory announcements from the SEC or international financial authorities, Ripple's commercial adoption metrics, and macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite for digital assets. Recent developments in central bank digital currency frameworks and stablecoin regulation could alter XRP's competitive positioning. Traders should monitor quarterly Ripple announcements and any material changes to the regulatory landscape, as these historically drive significant price movements that would affect settlement outcomes across multiple brackets.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$59K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $47K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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