Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.80 | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| 0.80-0.90 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on 9 June 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 25% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a one-in-four chance the price will fall within the YES bracket at that specific timestamp. Settlement hinges on a single data point—the close of a single minute candle—making execution risk and market microstructure relevant considerations alongside directional price forecasts.
XRP has historically exhibited substantial volatility around regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts. The 25% probability sits between typical ranges for moderately unlikely outcomes; comparable single-point-in-time price predictions on established cryptocurrencies often trade in the 20–35% range when targeting price levels two years forward, reflecting both the extended time horizon and inherent difficulty in pinpointing exact price levels. Historical precedent suggests that longer-dated XRP predictions tend to widen as uncertainty compounds, though the specific bracket thresholds here will determine whether current pricing reflects consensus or divergence on likely trading ranges.
Key variables include regulatory clarity on XRP's classification, which remains contested in multiple jurisdictions and could shift institutional adoption patterns. Macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment will influence XRP's correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should monitor announcements from the SEC and international regulators, as well as Ripple's institutional partnerships and product developments, though none follow a fixed schedule through June 2026. The noon ET timestamp introduces additional microstructure considerations, as this falls outside peak US trading hours but within European morning activity.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on June 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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