Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.90 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 7 June 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data as the sole resolution source. The 48% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty around XRP's valuation across an eighteen-month horizon. Settlement occurs at a specific intraday timestamp rather than daily close, which reduces noise from end-of-day volatility but requires precise data verification from Binance's candlestick records.
XRP has historically demonstrated significant price volatility tied to regulatory developments and institutional adoption announcements. The 2023 SEC settlement provided a structural shift in sentiment, though subsequent price movements have remained sensitive to broader cryptocurrency market conditions and macroeconomic factors. Comparable long-dated XRP markets have typically reflected the asset's correlation with Bitcoin dominance and risk appetite cycles, with probabilities shifting materially around quarterly earnings seasons and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments in cross-border payment adoption by financial institutions, any further regulatory clarity from the SEC or international bodies, and XRP Ledger ecosystem announcements. Ripple's quarterly business updates and partnership expansions have historically moved sentiment. Additionally, the broader cryptocurrency market's performance—particularly Bitcoin's trajectory—will likely dominate XRP price action through mid-2026, as the asset remains correlated with systemic risk appetite rather than isolated fundamental catalysts.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on June 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $112 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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