Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.00 | 98% YES | 3% NO |
| 1.10 | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| 1.20 | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| 1.30 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| 1.40 | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| 1.50 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| 1.60 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 1.70 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
This market settles on the Binance XRP/USDT pair's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 21 May 2026. The 98% implied probability reflects confidence that XRP will trade above a specified threshold at that precise moment, based on the 1-minute candle close. The settlement mechanism is deterministic: Binance's recorded close price either exceeds the strike or it does not, with no discretion in interpretation. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows the YES side heavily favoured, with minimal liquidity on the NO side at these odds.
XRP's historical volatility and intraday trading patterns provide context for assessing this probability. Over the past two years, XRP has experienced swings of 15–25% within single trading sessions, though noon closures on major exchanges typically reflect broader market sentiment rather than flash movements. The 98% confidence level suggests traders are pricing in either a structural bullish case for XRP or a strike price set well below current spot levels. Comparable prediction markets on cryptocurrency prices at specific timestamps have historically seen sharp repricing when unexpected exchange outages, regulatory announcements, or macroeconomic shocks occur within hours of settlement.
Key catalysts through May 2026 include potential regulatory clarity from the SEC regarding XRP's classification, any major Ripple partnership announcements affecting institutional adoption, and broader cryptocurrency market movements tied to Federal Reserve policy shifts. Traders should monitor Binance's operational status and any technical maintenance windows scheduled near the settlement time, as exchange downtime could affect candle formation and price discovery.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP above 2026 on May 21?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$114 in lifetime turnover and $743 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $114 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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