Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market resolves to the next individual officially announced as a Vice Chair (“中央军委副主席”) of the Communist Party of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) after market creation. If multiple individuals are announced on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the individual who was announced first by an official source. If multiple individuals are officially announced simultaneously as CMC Vice Chairs in the same official document/broadcast, the market will resolve in accordance with the listed order indicated by the official announcement. If no order is indicated the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the individuals listed last name.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Liu Zhenli | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zhang Shengmin | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Person D | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person H | 0% YES | 100% NO |
China's Central Military Commission may announce a new Vice Chair in the coming months, an appointment that would represent a significant shift in the country's military hierarchy. The CMC, chaired by Xi Jinping, currently has four Vice Chairs: Zhang Youyu, He Weidong, Liu Zhenli, and Xu Qiliang. Any new appointment would expand this group and signal changes in military leadership priorities or generational succession planning. The market resolves upon official announcement of a successor, with settlement by June 2026.
Historical precedent suggests such appointments occur infrequently and often coincide with broader leadership reshuffles. The most recent Vice Chair appointment was He Weidong in October 2022, following the 20th Party Congress. Prior appointments typically accompanied major party congresses or military restructuring initiatives. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about timing—no scheduled announcement has been publicly signalled, and the CMC's composition remains relatively stable. Traders should note that without a clear catalyst, the market may remain at low probability unless new information emerges.
Key catalysts include the 2027 National People's Congress session, where military appointments are sometimes announced, and any unscheduled CMC restructuring announcements from official Chinese state media. Recent reporting from Reuters and Xinhua in late 2024 has focused on existing Vice Chairs' roles rather than succession planning. Traders should monitor People's Daily and CCTV for official announcements, as these constitute the settlement criteria. The extended settlement window to June 2026 allows for multiple potential announcement windows, though the lack of current market activity suggests traders perceive low near-term probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next Vice Chair of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC)?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xi contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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