Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1250.00 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1250.00–1299.99 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 1300.00–1349.99 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 1350.00–1399.99 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 1400.00–1449.99 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 1450.00–1499.99 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 1500.00–1549.99 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 1550.00–1599.99 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Argentina's Central Bank will publish its official wholesale dollar exchange rate on the final business day of December 2026. The current Polymarket order book implies a 2% probability that this rate will fall between 800 and 850 pesos per dollar—a narrow band reflecting confidence in substantial peso depreciation from current levels around 1,000 ARS/USD. Settlement depends on the BCRA's published Tipo de Cambio Mayorista figure on that specific date.
Historical context matters considerably here. Argentina has experienced multiple currency regimes and devaluations over the past two decades, including the 2018–2019 crisis when the peso fell from roughly 20 to 40 ARS/USD within months, and the 2023 election aftermath when the rate moved from 280 to over 1,000 ARS/USD in a year. The 2% probability reflects scepticism that the peso could strengthen by 15–20% within two years given structural inflation, capital flight pressures, and limited foreign reserves. Markets typically price in continued depreciation unless major policy shifts occur.
Key catalysts include the government's monetary and fiscal policy trajectory, Central Bank reserve accumulation, and inflation dynamics. President Javier Milei's administration has pursued dollarisation and fiscal austerity since December 2023, though the pace of official rate adjustment versus parallel market rates remains contested. Any significant IMF programme renegotiation, changes to capital controls, or shifts in commodity export revenues could alter depreciation expectations materially. Traders should monitor quarterly inflation data and Central Bank communications through 2025–2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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