Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-50 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 50-60 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| 60-70 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 70-80 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 80-90 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 90-100 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| 100-110 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
This market resolves on the Binance SOL/USDT pair's closing price at noon ET on 14 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data from Binance's spot trading interface. The current 0% implied probability reflects minimal order book activity, suggesting either thin liquidity or consensus that the specified price bracket sits well outside realistic trading ranges for that date. With settlement over a year away, the market structure itself—relying on a single exchange's noon snapshot rather than daily closes or averaged pricing—introduces execution risk that may deter near-term positioning.
Solana's historical volatility provides context for reading such distant price predictions. Between 2021 and 2024, SOL traded from under $20 to over $200, with intraday swings of 5–15% common during volatile periods. Weekly markets on crypto assets typically see probability clustering around current spot prices or near-term technical levels; the absence of any YES probability here suggests the bracket in question lies either significantly above or below consensus expectations for May 2026. Comparable Polymarket crypto price brackets from prior years show that 12-month-plus forecasts rarely attract meaningful order flow unless they represent tail-risk scenarios.
Traders monitoring this market should track Solana's network developments, including validator economics and ecosystem adoption metrics, alongside broader crypto market structure. Regulatory announcements affecting spot trading on major exchanges could alter settlement mechanics. The specificity of the noon ET timestamp means intraday volatility and market microstructure on that particular day will matter more than longer-term price direction.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana price on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weekly contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $268 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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