Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | 90% YES | 11% NO |
The market assesses whether any calendar month in 2026 will record the highest average temperature for that month since instrumental records began. This hinges on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index maintained by NASA GISS, which synthesises satellite and station data across the planet. A 90% implied probability reflects trader conviction that at least one month next year will exceed its historical counterpart—a threshold that has become increasingly probable as baseline temperatures have risen. The current order book pricing reflects this consensus, with buyers willing to commit capital at odds suggesting near-certainty of the event occurring.
Recent years provide instructive precedent. 2023 and 2024 both saw multiple months set records for their respective calendar months, with 2024 tracking as the warmest year on record through its first nine months according to Copernicus Climate Change Service data released in October. This momentum matters: if 2026 continues the warming trajectory established since 2015, monthly records become statistically likely rather than exceptional. The bar for resolution is deliberately low—any single month suffices—which mathematically favours the affirmative case across twelve independent monthly comparisons.
Traders should monitor El Niño and La Niña conditions, which significantly influence global temperatures on seasonal timescales. The current neutral phase could shift either direction, potentially dampening or amplifying 2026's temperature profile. NASA GISS publishes monthly temperature anomalies with a lag of roughly two weeks, meaning final 2026 data will arrive throughout early 2027, well before the January settlement deadline. Volatility may emerge if unexpected cooling events occur, though the 90% probability suggests markets view such scenarios as tail risks.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$136K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $26 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 90%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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