Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 12 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 14+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ≤8 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 9 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 10 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 11 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 13 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
The market tracks the frequency of major earthquakes—magnitude 7.0 or above—occurring globally over a seven-month window from early December 2025 through June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 9% probability that this threshold will be met, pricing in expectations around the baseline seismic activity for a given half-year period.
Historically, the Earth experiences roughly 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater annually, though distribution is highly uneven. Over any six-month window, the expected count typically ranges from 6 to 8 events, making the 9% implied probability consistent with pricing for a below-average period. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and subsequent aftershock sequences demonstrated how a single major event can cluster multiple 7.0+ magnitude quakes within weeks, though such clustering remains statistically uncommon. USGS data from 2020–2024 shows annual variation between 12 and 18 major earthquakes, establishing the baseline against which traders should calibrate their expectations.
Traders should monitor real-time USGS earthquake bulletins and seismic network alerts, particularly in high-activity zones including the Pacific Ring of Fire, subduction zones near Japan and Indonesia, and the San Andreas Fault system. The resolution mechanism allows for a seven-day extension beyond the June 30 deadline to account for reporting delays, meaning late-June events may not settle immediately. No scheduled geological events trigger this market; outcomes depend entirely on natural seismic activity as recorded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$89K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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