Trade: Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 10?

Market context

On 10 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves as correct. The market settles based on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with resolution finalised by 12:00 UTC on that date. Currently, the order book shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical reset in the market's formation.

Qingdao's May climate typically sees daily highs between 18–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 28°C during early heat waves. Historical May records at the airport station show variability depending on whether subtropical air masses penetrate northward; the city experiences transition weather between spring and early summer. Comparable May days over the past decade suggest most outcomes cluster in the 20–26°C range, though outlier warm days do occur. The current zero probability across all bands is unusual and likely reflects either insufficient liquidity or an order book awaiting initial price discovery.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature ranges. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and any developing high-pressure systems over northern China will influence whether Qingdao experiences typical spring conditions or an early warm surge. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, which occurs after the local maximum temperature has typically been recorded in Qingdao's morning-to-afternoon cycle.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$73K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $66K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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