Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 15°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 16°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 17°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 22°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 9 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for the airport's official weather station. Munich's May temperatures typically range between 15–25°C, though extremes occasionally push beyond this band.
The current order book implies 0% probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting the market's nascent state rather than any consensus forecast. Historical May data from Munich Airport shows the median high around 19–20°C, with records reaching 29°C in exceptionally warm years. Spring weather patterns in Bavaria remain volatile through early May, with cold fronts capable of suppressing temperatures to single digits and high-pressure systems occasionally driving readings into the upper twenties. Traders should reference climatological baselines: the 30-year average high for Munich in May sits near 20°C, whilst extreme outliers occur roughly once per decade.
The primary catalyst remains the large-scale atmospheric pattern establishing itself in late April and early May 2026. European weather models typically gain reliable skill for temperature ranges five to ten days ahead, meaning meaningful price discovery should emerge around late April. Traders monitoring seasonal forecasts from national meteorological services—particularly Germany's Deutscher Wetterdienst—will have early signals regarding whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic low-pressure troughs dominate the continent during this period. Soil moisture and snow cover across the Alps may also influence local temperature trajectories.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Munich on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$114K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $92K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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