Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 80–85 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 85–90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 95–100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| <80 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 90–95 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Week 17 of 2026 falls in late April, near the tail end of the Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The market seeks to predict the CDC's reported cumulative hospitalisation rate per 100,000 population for that specific week, with resolution tied to FluSurv-NET data. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader consensus that hospitalisation rates will fall below the lowest bracket threshold—a positioning that requires scrutiny given seasonal patterns and historical volatility in late-season flu activity.
Influenza hospitalisation rates typically decline sharply through April and May as seasonal transmission wanes, but week-to-week variation remains material. The 2022–23 season saw rates near 1–2 per 100,000 in late April, whilst the 2021–22 season produced rates under 1 per 100,000 by that period. The 2023–24 season, which experienced a more pronounced spring resurgence, recorded rates of 2–3 per 100,000 in comparable weeks. Current order book depth suggests minimal liquidity at higher brackets, meaning the 0% probability may reflect sparse trading rather than high confidence in a genuinely zero outcome.
Resolution depends on CDC FluSurv-NET publication within ten days of the weekly FluView report release. Traders should monitor emerging variant surveillance data and any unexpected spring outbreaks reported through March and April 2026. Hospitalisation rates can shift if novel variants drive increased severity or if healthcare facility reporting lags. The settlement window closes 8 May 2026, allowing only limited time for data release and dispute resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 17, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: