Trade: Will US annex any territory in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $23K
- 24h Volume
- $365
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Will US annex any territory in 2026? | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether the United States will formally annex territory—most likely Venezuelan land—between now and the end of 2026. Formal annexation requires an official declaration or legal act claiming sovereignty over previously unclaimed territory, distinguishing it from de facto control or settler occupation. The 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects relatively low conviction amongst traders that such a scenario materialises within the settlement window, though the probability remains non-trivial given geopolitical volatility.
Historical US annexations occurred primarily in the 19th century, with the Louisiana Purchase (1803) and various territorial acquisitions during westward expansion providing the relevant legal and procedural precedent. More recent US territorial claims have been limited; the last formal annexation was Hawaii in 1959. The current probability assessment suggests traders view a formal annexation as substantially less likely than either military intervention without annexation or diplomatic pressure short of territorial claims. Venezuela's political instability and the disputed legitimacy of its government create theoretical conditions for intervention, but the gap between military action and formal annexation remains substantial under international law.
Traders should monitor announcements from the Trump administration regarding Venezuela policy, given the incoming presidency's stated hardline stance. Key catalysts include any formal statements on territorial claims, congressional resolutions, or diplomatic incidents that might escalate beyond current sanctions regimes. Recent reporting on US military posturing in the Caribbean and statements regarding regime change in Venezuela provide context, though explicit annexation rhetoric remains absent from mainstream policy discussions. The settlement window's two-year span allows time for significant geopolitical shifts, but current market pricing reflects scepticism that formal annexation becomes official US policy.
Wikipedia Context
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History of the Philippines (1898–1946)
The history of the Philippines from 1898 to 1946 is known as the American colonial period, and began with the outbreak of the Spanish–American War in April 1898, when the Philippines was still a colony of the Spanish East Indies, and concluded when the United States formally recognized the independence of the Republic of the Philippines on July 4, 1946.
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Movements for the United States annexation of CanadaVarious individuals and movements within Canada and the United States have campaigned in favour of U.S. annexation of parts of or all of Canada or have predicted it without endorsing it since their common origin as parts of British America. Before the United States even declared its independence, there were efforts to have parts of what is now Canada join th
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USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism
The USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism is a part of the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. It has 2,300 undergraduate and graduate students. Willow Bay is the Dean. Prof. Hector Amaya is the Director of the School of Communication, Prof. Gordon Stables serves as Director of the School of Journalism.
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USA Next
USA Next, formerly known as the United Seniors Association, is a United States lobbyist group whose slogan is "Building a Legacy of Freedom for America's Families". It presents itself as a conservative senior citizens organization. The group is a 501(c)(4) organization. Since 2001, Charles Jarvis has led the group.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will US annex any territory in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 12% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $833 if YES resolves true — a 733% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$23K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for venezuela contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $365 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will US annex any territory in 2026?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will US annex any territory in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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