Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | 13% YES | 88% NO |
The question turns on whether the Trump administration will formally recognise María Corina Machado as Venezuela's legitimate leader by the end of 2026. Machado, the opposition candidate barred from running in the July 2024 presidential election, has maintained that Nicolás Maduro's re-election was fraudulent. The U.S. currently recognises Juan Guaidó's successor, Javier Borges, as the legitimate interim president through the opposition-led Plataforma Unitaria. A shift to recognising Machado would require either a significant political realignment within Venezuela or a deliberate policy reversal by Washington.
Historical precedent suggests formal recognition shifts are rare and typically follow either a change in de facto control or substantial diplomatic repositioning. The U.S. maintained Guaidó recognition for roughly five years despite his lack of territorial control, indicating recognition can persist through symbolic rather than practical authority. However, the Trump administration has shown willingness to shift Venezuela policy unpredictably; the first Trump term oscillated between maximum pressure and back-channel negotiations. The current 13% implied probability on Polymarket reflects scepticism that Machado will achieve sufficient leverage or that Trump officials will prioritise this recognition over other foreign policy priorities within the two-year window.
Traders should monitor announcements from the State Department and Trump's team regarding Venezuela policy, any major developments in Venezuelan domestic politics that might alter the opposition's standing, and statements from Machado herself about negotiations with Washington. The resolution criteria require a direct, unqualified U.S. statement—supportive rhetoric or conditional language will not trigger settlement to "Yes."
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for venezuela contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 13%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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