Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures XRP price movement within a five-minute window on 31 May 2026, settling against Chainlink's XRP/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The 0% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where no traders are currently bidding for upside movement during this specific interval.
Five-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets typically resolve based on intraday volatility patterns and the specific data source used. Chainlink's aggregated pricing can occasionally diverge from individual exchange feeds due to latency differences and the methodology of combining multiple sources. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short timeframes like this one carry substantial uncertainty; even modest trading activity or order book imbalances can shift prices within seconds. The current 0% probability indicates the order book reflects either strong bearish sentiment or, more likely, minimal liquidity and participation in this particular contract, making the probability more a reflection of sparse trading interest than a confident directional forecast.
Traders monitoring this market should track XRP's broader price action in the days preceding 31 May, as momentum or volatility spikes often precede concentrated moves. Regulatory announcements affecting XRP—particularly from the SEC or major exchanges—could influence sentiment in the lead-up to the settlement window. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum price action frequently correlates with XRP movements, so monitoring those assets' behaviour on the settlement date itself will be relevant. The five-minute window's outcome will ultimately depend on order flow and execution timing rather than fundamental developments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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