Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether XRP/USD on Chainlink's data feed will close higher or flat over a fifteen-minute window on 31 May 2026, from 5:45 PM to 6:00 PM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty that the price will not decline during this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities on short-duration price movements typically indicate either minimal liquidity in the order book or a structural mismatch between the market's design and actual trading interest.
Fifteen-minute price windows rarely sustain meaningful directional conviction in cryptocurrency markets. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-term XRP price movements are driven by microstructure noise, order flow imbalances, and bid-ask spread dynamics rather than fundamental catalysts. Markets on comparable sub-hour timeframes across crypto assets have frequently resolved to "Up" simply because the opening and closing prices fell within the same tick or because the Chainlink feed's sampling captured a marginal uptick. The 100% probability may reflect traders' recognition that a true price decline—rather than flat movement—is statistically unlikely over fifteen minutes absent a major exchange outage or flash crash.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements, regulatory filings, or exchange maintenance windows fall near the 5:45 PM ET timestamp on that date. Chainlink feed latency and any discrepancies between spot market prices and the oracle's reported XRP/USD rate could affect settlement. The resolution depends entirely on Chainlink's data stream, not broader market prices, creating potential basis risk if the feed lags or diverges from actual trading venues.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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