Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Solana's price according to Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream moves upward or remains flat during a five-minute window in early May 2026. The settlement window closes at 06:40 UTC on 10 May, with price comparison points taken at 02:35 and 02:40 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for "Up," indicating that traders are pricing in either an expectation of upward movement or minimal downside risk during this specific five-minute interval.
Five-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets typically exhibit high volatility relative to their duration, though directional bias depends heavily on broader market conditions and intraday momentum. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short timeframes like this one often resolve based on noise rather than fundamental drivers, with outcomes frequently determined by order flow dynamics and technical levels rather than news events. Markets of this type have shown that even marginal price movements—including flat or near-flat closes—can skew probability assessments when liquidity is concentrated.
Traders monitoring this market should track Solana's price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, noting any significant moves in related assets or broader crypto market sentiment. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple exchanges, so any exchange-specific anomalies or flash crashes would be smoothed by the oracle mechanism. Liquidity conditions on major SOL/USD pairs during the early morning UTC window may prove decisive, as thin order books can amplify minor price swings.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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