Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 11 May 2026, from 7:20 AM to 7:25 AM ET, using Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed as the authoritative source. The market will resolve affirmatively if the closing price meets or exceeds the opening price during this interval, with settlement occurring at 11:25 AM ET. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a balanced 50-50 split between buyers and sellers, suggesting genuine uncertainty about directional bias in this narrow timeframe rather than consensus around either outcome.
Five-minute price movements in cryptocurrency markets typically exhibit minimal correlation with fundamental catalysts, instead reflecting microstructure dynamics and order flow patterns. Historical precedent suggests that intraday volatility clustering—where price swings tend to persist briefly—can provide marginal predictive value, though such effects diminish substantially over periods shorter than 15 minutes. The even split in implied probability indicates traders are pricing this as a near-random walk, consistent with efficient pricing of such short-duration events where technical factors dominate.
Traders monitoring this market should note that Hyperliquid's spot price can experience volatility spikes around major exchange announcements or derivative settlement events, though no scheduled catalysts are documented for this specific five-minute window. The resolution depends entirely on Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed rather than spot market prices, which may occasionally diverge during periods of low liquidity or network congestion. Execution timing and order book depth at both the opening and closing timestamps will likely prove more influential than broader market sentiment.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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