Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price will move upwards or remain flat during a five-minute window on 3 May between 3:35AM and 3:40AM ET, as measured by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are presently backing an "Up" outcome at any price, suggesting either strong conviction in downward momentum or minimal liquidity interest in this specific micro-timeframe contract.
Five-minute price movements in crypto markets are heavily influenced by microstructure dynamics rather than fundamental catalysts. Historical analysis of similar ultra-short-window contracts shows that such extreme probability skews often reflect thin order books rather than directional certainty; a single modest buy order can shift implied probabilities dramatically. HYPE, launched by the Hyperliquid exchange in March 2024, has experienced significant volatility tied to platform announcements and derivative trading volume changes, though intraday five-minute moves typically correlate more closely with broader market microstructure and order flow patterns than discrete news events.
Traders monitoring this contract should note that Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed aggregates data from multiple exchanges, introducing potential latency variations. The settlement window's timing during early morning US hours (3:35–3:40AM ET) coincides with lower trading volumes on most spot markets, which can amplify price impact from individual trades. Any scheduled exchange maintenance, liquidation cascades on Hyperliquid's own perpetual platform, or coordinated trading activity could influence the five-minute price action, though such events are rarely announced in advance for these specific windows.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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