Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether the Chainlink ETH/USD data stream records a higher price at 8:30AM ET on 2 June 2026 than at 8:25AM ET that same morning—a five-minute window capturing intraday volatility. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity in this specific micro-timeframe contract or a consensus that downward pressure dominates the opening minutes of that trading session. Such extreme probabilities in ultra-short-window markets typically indicate sparse order flow rather than high conviction, as traders rarely commit capital to five-minute price movements without significant catalysts.
Five-minute Ethereum price movements historically correlate most closely with spot market microstructure—order book imbalances, flash liquidations, and algorithmic execution flows—rather than fundamental news. Comparable micro-duration contracts on Polymarket show that opening-bell volatility in cryptocurrency markets often favours directional momentum from the prior session's close, though this relationship weakens substantially during low-volume Asian trading hours. The Chainlink feed itself introduces a small lag relative to some centralised exchanges, which can create discrepancies between perceived and actual settlement prices.
Traders monitoring this window should track overnight Bitcoin and broader crypto market positioning, as Ethereum typically follows BTC directional bias during thin liquidity periods. Scheduled economic data releases or regulatory announcements earlier on 2 June could establish directional bias, though a five-minute window is too narrow for most macro events to materialise. The settlement source's reliance on Chainlink's aggregated price feed rather than spot exchanges means watching for any feed disruptions or exchange connectivity issues that morning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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