Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Dogecoin's price movement during a five-minute window on 3 May 2026 between 5:00 and 5:05 AM ET will determine this market's resolution. The settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's DOGE/USD data stream rather than spot market prices, introducing a potential basis between the oracle feed and broader exchange quotations. Currently, the order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for upward movement, suggesting traders are pricing near-certainty that Dogecoin will either rise or remain flat during this specific interval.
Five-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets typically exhibit minimal directional conviction, as intraday volatility often produces random walk characteristics over such brief periods. Historical precedent from comparable ultra-short-duration crypto markets shows that when implied probabilities approach extremes—particularly 100%—they frequently reflect either illiquidity in the order book or a structural imbalance in available liquidity rather than genuine conviction about price direction. The thinness of order depth at extreme probability levels often means even modest trading activity can shift implied probabilities substantially.
Traders monitoring this market should note that Dogecoin's 5:00 AM ET window falls during Asian trading hours, when volumes typically remain lower than US or European sessions. No scheduled announcements or protocol upgrades are anticipated for early May 2026. The primary catalyst would be unexpected volatility in broader cryptocurrency markets—Bitcoin movements or macroeconomic data releases—which could drive correlated price action. The Chainlink feed's update frequency and any potential latency between spot exchanges and oracle reporting merit consideration given the five-minute settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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