Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures Bitcoin's price movement during a fifteen-minute window on 7 May 2026, from 19:00 to 19:15 ET, using Chainlink's BTC/USD data feed as the settlement source. The resolution hinges on whether the closing price at 19:15 ET meets or exceeds the opening price at 19:00 ET—a narrow timeframe that isolates intraday volatility rather than directional conviction. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for "Up," indicating that traders are pricing in either an expectation of upward movement or, more likely given the extreme probability, a liquidity constraint where minimal trading activity has occurred at the extremes.
Fifteen-minute Bitcoin price movements historically exhibit mean-reversion characteristics within broader daily trends. Over rolling fifteen-minute intervals, Bitcoin typically moves within 0.3–0.8% of its opening price, with roughly equal probability of up or down outcomes when no scheduled catalysts exist. The 100% probability reading suggests either that no meaningful liquidity exists on the "Down" side of the order book, or that traders have positioned ahead of a known catalyst during this specific window. Without a scheduled announcement, economic release, or regulatory event tied to this exact fifteen-minute slot, the extreme probability likely reflects thin order depth rather than genuine directional consensus.
Traders should monitor whether any major news, exchange-listed derivatives expiry, or macroeconomic data release falls within or immediately precedes this window. Chainlink's BTC/USD feed aggregates prices from multiple exchanges, so any flash crash or temporary liquidity disruption on constituent exchanges could influence settlement. The settlement occurs in May 2026, allowing sufficient time for market participants to assess whether this probability reflects genuine edge or merely sparse trading interest in a narrow intraday window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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