Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Binance Coin will either appreciate or remain flat over a five-minute window on 10 May at 21:45–21:50 ET, with settlement determined by Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for an upward or neutral resolution, suggesting traders are pricing in either strong conviction of price stability or minimal expected volatility during this specific interval.
Five-minute price movements in BNB historically exhibit low predictability given the asset's typical intraday volatility and the brevity of the observation window. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on crypto assets have shown that extreme probabilities—particularly those approaching certainty—often reflect either illiquidity in the order book or a genuine absence of downside risk catalysts within the timeframe. BNB's correlation with broader market sentiment and Bitcoin's movements during US trading hours typically dominates short-term price action, though five-minute intervals can be influenced by localised order flow imbalances.
Traders should monitor any scheduled announcements from Binance or regulatory developments affecting the exchange during the settlement window, though the likelihood of material news breaking within five minutes remains low. Chainlink's data feed aggregation methodology means the resolution price will reflect a time-weighted average rather than a single spot price, potentially smoothing volatile ticks. Liquidity conditions on major BNB trading pairs in the final minutes before 21:50 ET will be the primary determinant of actual price direction, with thin order books capable of producing outsized moves in either direction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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