Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on whether BNB's price on the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream closes higher or equal on 7 May between 11:30pm and 11:35pm ET compared to its opening price at 11:30pm. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility during US evening hours, when Asian markets are in their morning session and European markets have closed. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting either extremely tight bid-ask spreads or minimal liquidity at current levels, which typically occurs when traders perceive minimal price movement risk over such compressed timeframes.
Five-minute price windows on major assets rarely exhibit directional certainty in traditional markets, yet crypto markets demonstrate higher volatility clustering. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-duration price predictions on established assets like BNB tend toward equilibrium pricing, where the probability of upward movement approximates 50% absent specific catalysts. The 100% probability here likely reflects either technical factors—such as the specific Chainlink feed's update frequency or rounding conventions—or an absence of meaningful order book depth at alternative price levels.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, particularly any announcements from Binance or regulatory developments affecting the exchange's operations. Chainlink feed updates depend on price deviation thresholds and heartbeat intervals, meaning the resolution price may reflect the last valid feed update rather than continuous market prices. Volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum during Asian morning hours on 7 May could influence BNB's directional bias, though the compressed timeframe limits exposure to major news events.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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