Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures whether BNB, the native token of the Binance Smart Chain, will close higher or at the same level during a five-minute window on 4 May 2026 between 4:10PM and 4:15PM ET. Settlement relies on Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices, introducing a potential divergence from other price sources. The current orderbook on Polymarket shows 100% implied probability for "Up," reflecting either extremely tight bid-ask spreads favouring the affirmative or minimal liquidity at current pricing levels.
Five-minute intraday price movements in crypto assets typically exhibit high volatility, with BNB historically capable of swinging 1–3% within such windows depending on broader market conditions and trading volume. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on Polymarket have occasionally seen sharp probability reversals when actual price action contradicts initial crowdsourced expectations, particularly when liquidity is thin. The 100% reading suggests either the market has priced in an expectation of stability or lacks sufficient depth to reflect genuine uncertainty.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements from Binance or broader crypto market events occur near the settlement window. BNB's price typically correlates with Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, so volatility in major pairs during that five-minute period could drive directional pressure. Chainlink's data feed aggregates multiple sources with a slight lag, meaning real-time spot prices may diverge marginally from the settlement reference. The extended settlement window until May 2026 allows for potential order book adjustments as the actual date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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