Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? | 7% YES | 94% NO |
Myrnohrad is a town in Donetsk Oblast held by Russian forces, located approximately 30 kilometres south-west of Pokrovsk. Ukraine would need to advance significantly through contested territory to capture any portion of the town by 31 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Ukrainian control at 7 per cent, reflecting the substantial distance between front lines and the town's position, which remains firmly within Russian-held territory as of early 2025.
Historical precedent suggests that Ukrainian territorial gains of this magnitude require either a major operational breakthrough or a significant degradation of Russian defensive capacity. Ukraine's 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive demonstrated the possibility of rapid advances under specific conditions—concentrated forces, Russian overextension, and tactical surprise—yet such operations remain rare. The Myrnohrad probability reflects scepticism that conditions favouring a 30-kilometre advance will materialise within the 16-month window, particularly given the grinding attrition characterising recent operations in Donetsk.
Near-term catalysts include developments in winter 2025 fighting around Pokrovsk and Kursk, which could signal shifts in operational momentum. Any significant Ukrainian force concentration or announcement of new offensive capabilities would likely move the probability upward. Conversely, continued Russian consolidation or Ukrainian resource constraints would reinforce the current low probability. Traders should monitor ISW assessments and frontline reporting for evidence of Ukrainian preparation or capability changes that might alter the calculus for a push toward Myrnohrad.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $179 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 7%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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