Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Wes Streeting ceases to be the United Kingdom Secretary of State for Health and Social Care for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Streeting’s resignation/removal before this market’s end date will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 31 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| May 15 | 78% YES | 23% NO |
Wes Streeting has served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care since Labour's July 2024 election victory. The market tests whether he remains in post through 31 May 2026, with settlement triggered by any announcement of resignation or removal before that date, regardless of effective timing. The 93% implied probability reflects substantial market conviction that Streeting will not hold the role continuously through the settlement window.
UK Health Secretaries face particular vulnerability to departmental crises, budget disputes, and public health emergencies that can force rapid departures. Jeremy Hunt served for three years (2018–2021), whilst Matt Hancock lasted two years before his resignation over Covid-19 protocol breaches. Sajid Javid held the post for roughly eighteen months. The median tenure across recent holders sits well below two years, establishing a historical baseline where turnover at this level is commonplace rather than exceptional. The 93% probability reflects this structural churn as much as any specific current pressure on Streeting.
Traders should monitor NHS funding announcements, particularly the Autumn Statement and Spring Spending Review cycles where Health Secretaries often face public conflict over budget allocations. Streeting's stated commitment to NHS reform and his relationship with the Treasury will shape his political durability. Any major public health incident, industrial action escalation, or significant policy reversal could accelerate departure timelines. The order book currently prices departure as highly probable within an eighteen-month window, suggesting the market views the role's inherent volatility as the dominant factor rather than personal political weakness.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for uk contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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