Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Merab Dvalishvili | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| Sean O'Malley | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Song Yadong | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mario Bautista | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Fighter B | — | |
| Fighter D | — | |
The UFC Bantamweight division will have a reigning champion on 31 December 2026, and this market resolves based on whoever officially holds that title at that moment. The current champion is Sean O'Malley, who claimed the belt in November 2023 and has since defended it twice. The 18% implied probability reflects the current Polymarket order book, where traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about whether O'Malley or another fighter will hold the division's undisputed championship roughly two years hence.
Bantamweight title reigns have historically lasted between 18 and 48 months in the modern UFC era, with champions facing title defences roughly every 6–9 months when active. O'Malley's trajectory suggests he could feasibly remain champion through 2026, though injuries and competitive losses have derailed previous title runs in this division. The relatively low probability reflects the inherent volatility of combat sports over a two-year window, where multiple title fights, potential injuries, or unexpected upsets could alter the landscape substantially.
Traders should monitor O'Malley's scheduled title defences throughout 2025 and 2026, as each bout materially affects his championship status. Recent UFC scheduling patterns indicate bantamweights typically defend titles 1–2 times annually when healthy. Announcements regarding O'Malley's next challenger, any injury reports, or unexpected interim title creations would shift market pricing. The division's depth—with contenders like Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov, and others in the rankings—means multiple plausible championship scenarios remain viable through year-end 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$302K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $178 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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